Forex History
Development of the
international currency market:
The
evolution of the foreign exchange market in the recent decades goes through
many stages in order to become the main engine of the contemporary global economy.
Every
day currencies are traded in billions of dollars’ worth on the world financial
markets, thus enabling global trade and investment. This material is intended
to provide the background to current developments in the international currency
markets, with particular emphasis on international agreements and the impact of
technology on the business, which takes place 24 hours a day.
Between
the First and Second World War currencies were subject to the system of fixed
exchange rates based on gold and silver standards. This period is known as the
era of convertibility. Governments backed currency issued by them with a
specific amount of gold or silver. The dominant world currency at the time was
sterling and the dollar took on the role of the next most important currency.
The end of convertibility came around 1929, at the beginning of the Great
Depression. During World War II the foreign exchange
market virtually ceased to exist.
The Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944:
– Introduced the nominal system based on the
exchange standard of gold.
– Established the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank).
– USD replaced the British pound as the dominant
currency on the market.
Clearing arrangements;
– Multilateral agreement on compensation in 1947
– European Payments Union (EPU) 1950-1958
– European Monetary Agreement (EMA) 1958-1973
The
Abandonment of t a Bretton Woods Agreement leads:
– Formation of the Gold Pool in 1961 (to 1968)
– Introduction of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) in 1969
– Strong currencies float more freely.
(The Smithsonian Agreement of 1971)
The Agreement includes a 10 percent devaluation of the
dollar and a further increase of the other currencies, through an increase in
the official price of gold to $28 an ounce.
Greater flexibility was possible after expanding by 2.25% in
the permitted fluctuation margins of the new central rates of the currencies
against the dollar.
Due to Germany's skepticism regarding the Smithsonian
Agreement, European currencies change in a narrow range against each other and
have a floating exchange rate against the dollar, thus creating mini system.
The UK decision to join the Snake in May 1972 encouraged
other countries to free-float their currencies against the dollar, rather than
adhere to certain tolerance limits imposed by the Smithsonian Agreement.
Thus the Snake successfully replaces the Smithsonian
Agreement. In fact England was forced to withdraw from the Snake after only
seven weeks as a result of a speculative attack against the British pound.
In response to the high inflation caused by the oil crisis,
countries begin to set targets related to the increase in the money supply,
resulting in increased interest rates. These changes in interest rates lead to
greater movement of short-term capital between countries in search of higher
interest rates and thus reinforcing a floating rate.
Goals of the
European Monetary System of 1979:
– To contribute to better economic integration and stability
among member states of the EU.
– To introduce a system of managed exchange rate with
intervention of + / - 2.25% from central rates for most currencies, i.e.
Mechanism to control exchange rates.
– To establish the ECU as the main currency in the EU.
– Parity network is the cornerstone of the control mechanism
of exchange rates. Bilateral central rates for each currency are at the core of
the network.
European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) 1990-2002:
The creation of the European Economic and Monetary Union
(EMU) is a process involving three stages from 1990 to 2002. It was created to
introduce:
– Circulation of a single currency among member states of
the European Union.
– Creating a single European Central Bank (ECB).
– Common monetary policy between EU member states.
– Exchange rates between EU member states are fixed on 1
January 1999 and in January 2002 euro was put into circulation.
The Goals of the European Economic and Monetary Union are:
– More efficient single market.
– More stable economic environment.
– Increased international monetary stability.
– Further political integration within the EU.
Technological revolution:
Greater speed and efficiency of communication is a result of
the technological revolution. Dealers are able to expand their operations,
thanks to computerized cash payments and information systems. Technological
advances led to more speculation and volatility.
OTHER
INNOVATIONS INCLUDE:
v
Authorities of the countries in the G7 try to
maintain exchange rates within certain limits or reference ranges.
v
The Plaza Accord (1985) - In September 1985, the
finance ministers and central bank governors of the member countries of the G5
(U.S., UK, Germany, France and Japan) held a meeting in New York, at the Hotel
Plaza, on which they agreed to cooperate to encourage systematic improvement
the major currencies against the U.S. dollar.
v
The Louvre Agreement (1987) - In February 1987
the member states of the G6 (G5 with Italy) agreed to maintain their currencies
at appropriate levels and promised to cooperate to foster stability of exchange
rates around current levels. There is an unofficial exchange rate going to be
maintained within 5%.
v
The international payments system is based on
the exchange standard - International payment system is actually based on the
dollar standard that actually exists, but is not officially recognized. Foreign
central authorities hold reserves primarily in the form of dollars and use them
to settle international debts. However, the dollar was no longer convertible
into gold or something else. Thus, the purchasing value of the global dollar
reserves depends on the state of the U.S. economy. It seems that this situation
will continue until they are widely accepted alternative reserve assets.
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