Friday, February 26, 2016

ntroduction to the Forex Market

Introduction to the Forex Market

What is Forex?

"Forex" stands for foreign exchange; it's also known as FX. In a forex trade, you buy one currency while simultaneously selling another - that is, you're exchanging the sold currency for the one you're buying. The foreign exchange market is an over-the-counter market.
Currencies trade in pairs, like the Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) or US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY). Unlike stocks or futures, there's no centralized exchange for forex. All transactions happen via phone or electronic network.

Who trades currencies?

Daily turnover in the world's currencies comes from two sources:
  • Foreign trade (5%). Companies buy and sell products in foreign countries, plus convert profits from foreign sales into domestic currency.
  • Speculation for profit (95%).
Most traders focus on the biggest, most liquid currency pairs. "The Majors" include US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar. In fact, more than 85% of daily forex trading happens in the major currency pairs.

Why trade Forex?

With average daily turnover of US$4 trillion, forex is the most traded financial market in the world.
A true 24-hour market from Sunday 5 PM ET to Friday 5 PM ET, forex trading begins in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins, first to Tokyo, London, and New York.
Unlike other financial markets, investors can respond immediately to currency fluctuations, whenever they occur - day or night.

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Forward

Forward
See also: Forward contract
One way to deal with the foreign exchange risk is to engage in a forward transaction. In this transaction, money does not actually change hands until some agreed upon future date. A buyer and seller agree on an exchange rate for any date in the future, and the transaction occurs on that date, regardless of what the market rates are then. The duration of the trade can be one day, a few days, months or years. Usually the date is decided by both parties. Then the forward contract is negotiated and agreed upon by both parties.

Swap
Main article: Foreign exchange swap
The most common type of forward transaction is the foreign exchange swap. In a swap, two parties exchange currencies for a certain length of time and agree to reverse the transaction at a later date. These are not standardized contracts and are not traded through an exchange. A deposit is often required in order to hold the position open until the transaction is completed.

Futures
Main article: Currency future
Futures are standardized forward contracts and are usually traded on an exchange created for this purpose. The average contract length is roughly 3 months. Futures contracts are usually inclusive of any interest amounts.

Currency futures contracts are contracts specifying a standard volume of a particular currency to be exchanged on a specific settlement date. Thus the currency futures contracts are similar to forward contracts in terms of their obligation, but differ from forward contracts in the way they are traded. They are commonly used by MNCs to hedge their currency positions. In addition they are traded by speculators who hope to capitalize on their expectations of exchange rate movements.

history of new forex

Ancient
Currency trading and exchange first occurred in ancient times. Money-changing people, people helping others to change money and also taking a commission or charging a fee were living in the times of the Talmudic writings (Biblical times). These people (sometimes called "kollybistẻs") used city-stalls, at feast times the temples Court of the Gentiles instead. Money-changers were also in more recent ancient times silver-smiths and/or gold-smiths.

During the 4th century, the Byzantine government kept a monopoly on the exchange of currency.

Papyri PCZ I 59021 (c.259/8 BC), shows the occurrences of exchange of coinage within Ancient Egypt.

Currency and exchange was also a vital and crucial element of trade during the ancient world so that people could buy and sell items like food, pottery and raw materials. If a Greek coin held more gold than an Egyptian coin due to its size or content, then a merchant could barter fewer Greek gold coins for more Egyptian ones, or for more material goods. This is why, at some point in their history, most world currencies in circulation today had a value fixed to a specific quantity of a recognized standard like silver and gold.

Medieval and later
During the 15th century, the Medici family were required to open banks at foreign locations in order to exchange currencies to act on behalf of textile merchants. To facilitate trade the bank created the nostro (from Italian translated – "ours") account book which contained two columned entries showing amounts of foreign and local currencies, information pertaining to the keeping of an account with a foreign bank. During the 17th (or 18th ) century, Amsterdam maintained an active forex market. In 1704, foreign exchange took place between agents acting in the interests of the Kingdom of England and the County of Holland.

Early modern
Alex. Brown & Sons traded foreign currencies exchange sometime about 1850 and was a leading participant in this within U.S.A. During 1880, J.M. do Espírito Santo de Silva (Banco Espírito Santo) applied for and was given permission to begin to engage in a foreign exchange trading business.

The year 1880 is considered by at least one source to be the beginning of modern foreign exchange, significant for the fact of the beginning of the gold standard during the year.

Prior to the first world war, there was a much more limited control of international trade. Motivated by the outset of war, countries abandoned the gold standard monetary system.

Modern to post-modern
From 1899 to 1913, holdings of countries' foreign exchange increased at an annual rate of 10.8%, while holdings of gold increased at an annual rate of 6.3% between 1903 and 1913

At the time of the closing of the year 1913, nearly half of the world's foreign exchange was conducted using the Pound sterling. The number of foreign banks operating within the boundaries of London increased from 3 in 1860 to 71 in 1913. In 1902, there were altogether two London foreign exchange brokers. During the earliest years of the 20th century, trade was most active in Paris, New York and Berlin, while Britain remained largely uninvolved in trade until 1914. Between 1919 and 1922, the employment of foreign exchange brokers within London increased to 17, in 1924 there were 40 firms operating for the purposes of exchange. During the 1920s, the occurrence of trade in London resembled more the modern manifestation, by 1928 forex trade was integral to the financial functioning of the city. Continental exchange controls, plus other factors, in Europe and Latin America, hampered any attempt at wholesale prosperity from trade for those of 1930's London.

During the 1920s, the Kleinwort family were known to be the leaders of the foreign exchange market; while Japheth, Montagu & Co., and Seligman still warrant recognition as significant FX traders.

The foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. This includes all aspects of buying, selling and exchanging currencies at current or determined prices. In terms of volume of trading, it is by far the largest market in the world. The main participants in this market are the larger international banks. Financial centres around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of multiple types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends. The foreign exchange market does not determine the relative values of different currencies, but sets the current market price of the value of one currency as demanded against another.

The foreign exchange market works through financial institutions, and it operates on several levels. Behind the scenes banks turn to a smaller number of financial firms known as “dealers,” who are actively involved in large quantities of foreign exchange trading. Most foreign exchange dealers are banks, so this behind-the-scenes market is sometimes called the “interbank market”, although a few insurance companies and other kinds of financial firms are involved. Trades between foreign exchange dealers can be very large, involving hundreds of millions of dollars. Because of the sovereignty issue when involving two currencies, forex has little (if any) supervisory entity regulating its actions.

The foreign exchange market assists international trade and investments by enabling currency conversion. For example, it permits a business in the United States to import goods from European Union member states, especially Eurozone members, and pay Euros, even though its income is in United States dollars. It also supports direct speculation and evaluation relative to the value of currencies, and the carry trade, speculation based on the interest rate differential between two currencies.

In a typical foreign exchange transaction, a party purchases some quantity of one currency by paying with some quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market began forming during the 1970s after three decades of government restrictions on foreign exchange transactions (the Bretton Woods system of monetary management established the rules for commercial and financial relations among the world's major industrial states after World War II), when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.

The foreign exchange market is unique because of the following characteristics:

its huge trading volume representing the largest asset class in the world leading to high liquidity;
its geographical dispersion;
its continuous operation: 24 hours a day except weekends, i.e., trading from 22:00 GMT on Sunday (Sydney) until 22:00 GMT Friday (New York);
the variety of factors that affect exchange rates;
the low margins of relative profit compared with other markets of fixed income; and
the use of leverage to enhance profit and loss margins and with respect to account size.
As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal of perfect competition, notwithstanding currency intervention by central banks.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, the preliminary global results from the 2013 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and OTC Derivatives Markets Activity show that trading in foreign exchange markets averaged $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013. This is up from $4.0 trillion in April 2010 and $3.3 trillion in April 2007. Foreign exchange swaps were the most actively traded instruments in April 2013, at $2.2 trillion per day, followed by spot trading at $2.0 trillion. According to the Bank for International Settlements, as of April 2010, average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion, a growth of approximately 20% over the $3.21 trillion daily volume as of April 2007. Some firms specializing on foreign exchange market had put the average daily turnover in excess of US$4 trillion. The $3.98 trillion break-down is as follows:

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

History

History
Ancient
Currency trading and exchange first occurred in ancient times. Money-changing people, people helping others to change money and also taking a commission or charging a fee were living in the times of the Talmudic writings (Biblical times). These people (sometimes called "kollybistẻs") used city-stalls, at feast times the temples Court of the Gentiles instead. Money-changers were also in more recent ancient times silver-smiths and/or gold-smiths.

During the 4th century, the Byzantine government kept a monopoly on the exchange of currency.

Papyri PCZ I 59021 (c.259/8 BC), shows the occurrences of exchange of coinage within Ancient Egypt.

Currency and exchange was also a vital and crucial element of trade during the ancient world so that people could buy and sell items like food, pottery and raw materials.[12] If a Greek coin held more gold than an Egyptian coin due to its size or content, then a merchant could barter fewer Greek gold coins for more Egyptian ones, or for more material goods. This is why, at some point in their history, most world currencies in circulation today had a value fixed to a specific quantity of a recognized standard like silver and gold.

Medieval and later
During the 15th century, the Medici family were required to open banks at foreign locations in order to exchange currencies to act on behalf of textile merchants. To facilitate trade the bank created the nostro (from Italian translated – "ours") account book which contained two columned entries showing amounts of foreign and local currencies, information pertaining to the keeping of an account with a foreign bank.During the 17th (or 18th ) century, Amsterdam maintained an active forex market. In 1704, foreign exchange took place between agents acting in the interests of the Kingdom of England and the County of Holland.

Early modern
Alex. Brown & Sons traded foreign currencies exchange sometime about 1850 and was a leading participant in this within U.S.A. During 1880, J.M. do Espírito Santo de Silva (Banco Espírito Santo) applied for and was given permission to begin to engage in a foreign exchange trading business.

The year 1880 is considered by at least one source to be the beginning of modern foreign exchange, significant for the fact of the beginning of the gold standard during the year.

Prior to the first world war, there was a much more limited control of international trade. Motivated by the outset of war, countries abandoned the gold standard monetary system.

Modern to post-modern
From 1899 to 1913, holdings of countries' foreign exchange increased at an annual rate of 10.8%, while holdings of gold increased at an annual rate of 6.3% between 1903 and 1913.

At the time of the closing of the year 1913, nearly half of the world's foreign exchange was conducted using the Pound sterling. The number of foreign banks operating within the boundaries of London increased from 3 in 1860 to 71 in 1913. In 1902, there were altogether two London foreign exchange brokers. During the earliest years of the 20th century, trade was most active in Paris, New York and Berlin, while Britain remained largely uninvolved in trade until 1914. Between 1919 and 1922, the employment of foreign exchange brokers within London increased to 17, in 1924 there were 40 firms operating for the purposes of exchange. During the 1920s, the occurrence of trade in London resembled more the modern manifestation, by 1928 forex trade was integral to the financial functioning of the city. Continental exchange controls, plus other factors, in Europe and Latin America, hampered any attempt at wholesale prosperity from trade for those of 1930's London.

During the 1920s, the Kleinwort family were known to be the leaders of the foreign exchange market; while Japheth, Montagu & Co., and Seligman still warrant recognition as significant FX traders.

After WWII
After WWII, the Bretton Woods Accord was signed allowing currencies to fluctuate within a range of 1% to the currencies par. In Japan, the law was changed during 1954 by the Foreign Exchange Bank Law, so, the Bank of Tokyo was to become, because of this, the centre of foreign exchange by September of that year. Between 1954 and 1959 Japanese law was made to allow the inclusion of many more Occidental currencies in Japanese forex.

U.S. President Richard Nixon is credited with ending the Bretton Woods Accord and fixed rates of exchange, eventually bringing about a free-floating currency system. After the ceasing of the enactment of the "Bretton Woods Accord" during 1971,the Smithsonian Agreement allowed trading to range to 2%. During 1961–62, the amount of foreign operations by the U.S. Federal Reserve was relatively low. Those involved in controlling exchange rates found the boundaries of the Agreement were not realistic and so ceased this in March 1973, when sometime afterward none of the major currencies were maintained with a capacity for conversion to gold, organizations relied instead on reserves of currency. During 1970 to 1973 the amount of trades occurring in the market increased three-fold. At some time (according to Gandolfo during February–March 1973) some of the markets' were "split", so a two tier currency market was subsequently introduced, with dual currency rates. This was abolished during March 1974.

Risk aversion

Risk aversion
See also: Safe-haven currency

Fig.1 Chart showing MSCI World Index of Equities fell while the US dollar Index rose.
Risk aversion is a kind of trading behavior exhibited by the foreign exchange market when a potentially adverse event happens which may affect market conditions. This behavior is caused when risk averse traders liquidate their positions in risky assets and shift the funds to less risky assets due to uncertainty.

In the context of the foreign exchange market, traders liquidate their positions in various currencies to take up positions in safe-haven currencies, such as the US dollar. Sometimes, the choice of a safe haven currency is more of a choice based on prevailing sentiments rather than one of economic statistics. An example would be the Financial Crisis of 2008. The value of equities across the world fell while the US dollar strengthened (see Fig.1). This happened despite the strong focus of the crisis in the USA.

Carry trade
Main article: Carry trade
Currency carry trade refers to the act of borrowing one currency that has a low interest rate in order to purchase another with a higher interest rate. A large difference in rates can be highly profitable for the trader, especially if high leverage is used. However, with all levered investments this is a double edged sword, and large exchange rate price fluctuations can suddenly swing trades into huge losses.

Forex signals
Main article: Forex signal
Forex trade alerts, often referred to as "forex signals", are trade strategies provided by either experienced traders or market analysts. These signals which are often charged a premium fee for can then be copied or replicated by a trader to his own live account. Forex signal products are packaged as either alerts delivered to a user's inbox or SMS, or can be installed to a trader's trading platforms. Algorithmic trading, whereby foreign exchange users can programme (or buy ready made software) to place trades on their behalf, according to pre-determined rules has become very popular in recent years. This means that users can set their 'Algos' to trade on their behalf, thus reducing the need to sit and monitor the markets continuously, plus it can remove the element of human emotion around executing a trade.

Speculation

Speculation
Controversy about currency speculators and their effect on currency devaluations and national economies recurs regularly. Economists, such as Milton Friedman, have argued that speculators ultimately are a stabilizing influence on the market, and that stabilizing speculation performs the important function of providing a market for hedgers and transferring risk from those people who don't wish to bear it, to those who do. Other economists, such as Joseph Stiglitz, consider this argument to be based more on politics and a free market philosophy than on economics.

Large hedge funds and other well capitalized "position traders" are the main professional speculators. According to some economists, individual traders could act as "noise traders" and have a more destabilizing role than larger and better informed actors. Also to be considered is the rise in foreign exchange autotrading; algorithmic, or automated, trading has increased from 2% in 2004 up to 45% in 2010.

Currency speculation is considered a highly suspect activity in many countries. While investment in traditional financial instruments like bonds or stocks often is considered to contribute positively to economic growth by providing capital, currency speculation does not; according to this view, it is simply gambling that often interferes with economic policy. For example, in 1992, currency speculation forced the Central Bank of Sweden to raise interest rates for a few days to 500% per annum, and later to devalue the krona. Mahathir Mohamad, one of the former Prime Ministers of Malaysia, is one well-known proponent of this view. He blamed the devaluation of the Malaysian ringgit in 1997 on George Soros and other speculators.

Gregory Millman reports on an opposing view, comparing speculators to "vigilantes" who simply help "enforce" international agreements and anticipate the effects of basic economic "laws" in order to profit.

In this view, countries may develop unsustainable financial bubbles or otherwise mishandle their national economies, and foreign exchange speculators made the inevitable collapse happen sooner. A relatively quick collapse might even be preferable to continued economic mishandling, followed by an eventual, larger, collapse. Mahathir Mohamad and other critics of speculation are viewed as trying to deflect the blame from themselves for having caused the unsustainable economic conditions.